关键词: 带状疱疹后遗神经痛, 危险性评估, 预测, 模型, 系统评价

Abstract: Objective: To systematically evaluate the risk prediction models of postherpetic neuralgia. Methods: Therelevant literatures on postherpetic neuralgia risk prediction models published in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, Web of Science, Sinomed, CNKI, VIP and Wanfang data knowledge service platform were searched from the inception of the database to April 1, 2024. PROBAST was used to evaluate the quality of the model, and RevMan 5.4 was used to conduct meta-analysis of the predictive factors in the model. Results: A total of 21 literatures were included, including 29 models, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the included models ranged from 0.710 to 0.990. Model calibration was performed on 16 models and validation was performed on 20 models. The results of PROBAST evaluation showed that 1 of the 21 included articles had a low risk of bias, and the other 20 articles had a high risk of bias. In terms of the applicability of the model, 2 articles are unclear, and the rest are highly applicable. The results of meta-analysis showed that age, gender, degree of pain in the acute phase, size of lesions, duration of initial treatment, presence of underlying disease, presence of prodromal pain, and presence of immunosuppressive status were factors influencing the risk of developing postherpetic neuralgia (P<0.05). Conclusion: The risk prediction models of postherpetic neuralgia still have shortcomings, and the overall research quality needs to be further strengthened.

Key words: Postherpetic neuralgia, Risk assessment, Forecast, Model, Systematic review;